On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump declared a 10 percent tariff on all imports, effective on April 5, with additional country-specific tariffs set to commence on April 9.
The announcement sent shockwaves through the global economy, triggering the worst two-day loss in United States stock market history. On Thursday and Friday alone, $6.6 trillion in value was wiped out before markets closed for the weekend.
After a slight recovery on Tuesday, stocks fell once again on Wednesday as President Trump’s new tariffs on imports from dozens of countries took effect, including a steep 104 percent tariff on goods from China – dramatically escalating fears of a global trade war.
How much will each country be tariffed?
The White House released a list of 57 countries, territories and trading blocs that will be subject to increased tariffs, as detailed in the table below. In addition to these 57, Trump also imposed a flat 10 percent tariff on imports from nearly all other US trading partners.
A tariff is a government-imposed tax on imported goods and services, paid by businesses bringing them into the country. Tariffs are meant to protect local industries but often make foreign products more expensive for consumers.
How much money has been lost?
According to Bloomberg, three days of market losses – Thursday, Friday, and Monday – have wiped out about $10 trillion in global equity value. That’s roughly 10 percent of global gross domestic product, and more than the combined GDP of 150 countries.
The S&P 500, a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States, suffered its deepest loss over four days since the benchmark’s creation in the 1950s.
Investors often use it to gauge the health of the stock market and the broader US economy.
It is now nearing a bear market, which is defined as 20 percent below its most recent high.
On market close on April 8:
- The S&P 500 closed down 79.48 points, or 1.6 percent, at 4,982.77
- The Dow closed down 320.01 points, or 0.8 percent, at 37,645.59
- The Nasdaq closed down 335.35 points, or 2.2 percent, at 15,267.91
What has happened to gold, oil and bitcoin?
Aside from the stock market, the price of gold, crude oil and Bitcoin have all fallen over the past week amid rising uncertainty.
Gold, typically considered a safe asset in times of uncertainty, has seen increased demand in recent months.
The gold market initially surged following the tariff announcement, reaching a high of $3,167 per ounce. However, it dipped by 2 percent on April 7 to $2,977, before edging up slightly to $2,984 on Tuesday.
Oil prices plunged by 7 percent in response to the tariff announcement, followed by a further 2 percent drop on April 5. By Tuesday, oil had stabilised around $60 per barrel but has since dropped below $57, the lowest it has been since 2021.
Typically, oil prices fall during times of recession due to reduced demand, and fears of a recession caused by the trade conflict between the US and China – the world’s two largest economies – have contributed to this decline.
Bitcoin, which was expected to flourish under the new government, has also slipped over the past week. The cryptocurrency has fallen by 30 percent since Trump’s inauguration on January 20, from $109,000 to today’s $77,000.
What about global currencies?
Countries that are major trading partners with the US, along with other emerging market currencies, have responded with mixed signals.
According to Reuters, the US dollar weakened against major currencies including the yen and euro, while China’s yuan hit a 19-month low on Tuesday, caught in the crossfire of the trade tariff war.
Euro: The European currency was last up 0.1 percent at $1.09, down from an earlier rise of more than 0.7 percent, after falling for the two previous days.
British pound sterling: Lost about 1 percent over the past week, from one dollar costing £1.30 on April 2 to £1.28 on April 8.
Russian rouble: Had a slight dip from 84.2 roubles to the dollar on April 2 to 86.1 on April 8.
Chinese yuan: Weakened at a 19-month low against the US dollar, with the People’s Bank of China setting the reference rate at 7.2038 yuan per dollar.
Indian rupee: Is expected to depreciate further, and on Monday, the South Asian powerhouse tumbled by 0.7 percent, its biggest slip in three months. The currency closed at 86.44 rupees against the dollar, a slight loss from the previous day.
Japanese yen: Strengthened as investors sought refuge from the volatility, closing at 146.41 per dollar, up from 150.36 on April 2.
Brazilian real: Also weakened over the past week, from 5.67 reais to the dollar down to 6.00 as markets closed on Tuesday.
Mexican peso: The US’s largest trading partner also saw a decline, with the peso closing at 20.89 per dollar, down from 20.34 on April 2.
South African rand: Weakened by 4.4 percent over the past week, reaching R19.75, its weakest level in two years.
What does this mean for a global recession?
A recession is a period of significant economic decline, typically defined as two consecutive quarters (six months) of negative growth in a country’s GDP.
Since 1950, the US has experienced 11 recessions. Some of the most notable include the oil crisis (1973-1975), double-dip recession (1980-1982), dot-com bubble (2001), global financial crisis (2007-2009), and COVID-19 (2020).
Analysts at JPMorgan have estimated a 60 percent likelihood of a recession, while Goldman Sachs and Morningstar put the odds between 40 and 50 percent.
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