United States President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he was “p***** off” at his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, and would slap additional financial penalties on the sale of Russian oil if he did not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
The comments marked a sharp change in tone from Trump, who has been open to peace negotiations with Moscow since his second term began in January.
Here is more about what happened, what Trump’s threat could involve, and why this is significant for Putin’s war on Ukraine, and for countries that buy Russian oil.
What did Trump say about Putin?
During an interview with NBC on Sunday, Trump said he was “very angry” and “p***** off” over Putin questioning the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump argued that any move seeking to replace Zelenskyy as the leader of Ukraine would inevitably delay the prospects of a ceasefire.
However, Trump did add that Putin knew he was angry with him. He said he and Putin had “a very good relationship” and “the anger dissipates quickly … if he does the right thing”.
What had Putin said about Zelenskyy?
Putin said Zelenskyy lacked the legitimacy to sign a peace agreement.
The Russian leader has frequently claimed that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate, ever since the 2014 overthrow of Moscow-leaning President Viktor Yanukovych, whom the Kremlin claims had US backing.
Putin suggested on Thursday that a temporary administration be established in Ukraine under the supervision of the United Nations. This proposal was rejected by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
Zelenskyy was sworn in as the president of Ukraine in 2019 for a five-year term. The war broke out following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While Ukraine was supposed to have presidential elections in 2024, the country has been under martial law due to the war, and its constitution does not allow it to hold elections under martial law conditions.
Though Trump has now criticised Putin for questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as Ukraine’s president, the American leader did the same not long ago.
In February, amid tensions with the Ukrainian leader, Trump described Zelenskyy as “A Dictator without Elections” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
What is the state of diplomatic efforts to end the Ukraine war?
During his presidential election campaign, Trump promised that he would bring the Ukraine war to a prompt halt.
Since his inauguration, US negotiating teams have separately met Russian and Ukrainian teams multiple times in Saudi Arabia to discuss peace terms. Trump has also separately spoken to Putin and Zelenskyy since then.
The three sides agreed on March 25 to stop using military force in the Black Sea. They also agreed to pause attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine for 30 days. However, both sides have accused each other of violating this and attacking energy facilities.
Ukraine and the US had agreed to a 30-day complete ceasefire on land and sea, which is pending Russia’s approval. Putin has not signed this proposal, citing reservations that Ukraine might use the period to rearm itself — including with supplies of cutting-edge Western weapons — and mobilise more soldiers at a time when it faces a manpower shortage.
What has Trump threatened — and will it work?
Trump has threatened “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil if he deems Moscow responsible for not reaching a ceasefire agreement.
“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault – which it might not be – but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on all oil coming out of Russia,” said Trump during the NBC interview.
“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25 percent tariff on all oil, a 25 to 50-point tariff on all oil.”
Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera that it is unclear whether these threats would place pressure on Russia.
“We have seen sporadic threats by Trump to impose some kind of economic pressure on Russia but they never last long,” said Giles, adding it would be a “radical departure” from his past approach towards the war if Trump were to impose pressure on Moscow, rather than on Kyiv.
“We do not know if this threat is empty, but the previous ones have been, and Putin knows that,” Giles said.
What are secondary tariffs?
By “secondary tariffs” Trump appears to mean tariffs on imports from countries that buy Russian oil.
The US has long led campaigns of what are known as secondary sanctions — in which countries that trade with a sanctioned country also face sanctions. For instance, secondary sanctions are in place against the purchase of Iranian oil or heavy military equipment from Russia: countries, companies and individuals that engage in this trade are at risk of US sanctions.
The threat of secondary US sanctions is also why most global banks and financial institutions no longer participate in trade with Russia or Iran — they do not want to risk losing out on business in the US.
By contrast, secondary tariffs are relatively untested as a phenomenon. Last week, Trump also imposed a 25 percent secondary tariff on US imports from any country buying oil and gas from Venezuela.
Which countries could Trump’s secondary tariffs hurt?
If Trump imposes secondary tariffs on Russian oil, India and China could be hit particularly hard.
India and China are the two biggest buyers of inexpensive Russian crude.
Russian oil constituted 35 percent of India’s overall crude imports in 2024, while it made up 19 percent of China’s oil imports. Turkiye is also an importer of Russian oil — in 2023, as much as 58 percent of its refined petroleum imports came from Russia.
How much would secondary tariffs bleed China, India and Turkiye?
If Trump were to impose these tariffs, it is unclear whether they would be added to existing tariffs or if they would absorb other tariffs already in force.
The US is China’s single biggest export market. In 2024, China sold goods worth $463bn to the US. But Trump has already imposed 20 percent tariffs on all imports from China.
India too counts the US as its biggest export market. Indian exports to the US stood at $91bn in 2024. However, Trump has repeatedly railed against India’s high tariffs on US imports.
Turkiye is relatively less exposed. The US is its second-largest export market, after Germany, at $17bn in 2024.
However, Trump has threatened reciprocal, tit-for-tat tariffs from April 2 against all US trading partners.
And if Trump truly cracks down on countries that buy Russian oil, India in particular could find itself under Washington’s scrutiny. That is because India — which has 22 oil refineries, including the world’s largest in Jamnagar in the western state of Gujarat — has long been accused of buying subsidised Russian oil, refining it, and selling it to the West, effectively helping Moscow undercut Western sanctions.
In 2023, India exported $55.8bn worth of refined oil products such as petrol and diesel to countries including the US, the United Kingdom, France and Belgium that otherwise have strict sanctions on the import of Russian crude, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).
Following Canada, India is the second largest exporter of refined oil to the US, making up 7.5 percent of US oil exports as of 2023, OEC data shows.
But India has long argued that by buying Russian oil, it has freed up crude from other sources, such as the Middle East and Africa, for Western nations to buy, keeping global oil prices under control. If oil from Russia — a leading producer — were no longer available to anyone, every nation would need to scramble for limited supplies of crude from elsewhere, driving up prices.
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