US may withdraw support for Argentina if it continues accord with China

The United States has made its support for Argentina’s ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) negotiations conditional on President Javier Milei’s willingness to sever ties with China, particularly by terminating a longstanding currency swap agreement. This move is seen as a strategic effort to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

Argentina requested a $20 billion loan from the IMF at the end of last month. However, the country has been a serial defaulter, with the international agency having to bail its ailing economy out 22 times. Argentina also has one of the highest inflation rates in the world, at 84.5%, although it has been greatly reduced under Milei, falling from 211% year-on-year at the end of 2023.

Mauricio Claver Carone, a key advisor to President Donald Trump on Latin American affairs, recently emphasized the importance of distancing Argentina from China’s economic grasp. Speaking at an event in Miami, Claver Carone described President Milei as a “valued ally” but emphasized the need for Argentina to prioritize its relationship with the US and the IMF over its ties with Beijing.

A battle for influence in the region

The currency swap agreement between Argentina and China, established in 2009, has provided a vital lifeline for the South American nation’s economy. By allowing the Argentine central bank to exchange currencies at a predetermined rate, the agreement has enabled the country to access the Chinese renminbi, which can then be converted into US dollars. This has helped bolster Argentina’s foreign reserves and facilitated its ability to repay debts to creditors, including the IMF.

However, the US views this arrangement as a means for China to exert undue influence over Argentina’s economic decision-making. Claver Carone characterized the swap line as “extortionate,” suggesting that as long as it remains in place, China will maintain significant leverage over Argentina’s financial affairs.

Entrepreneur and commentator on economics and geopolitics Arnaud Bertrand posted:

“This is unreal and shows there’s really no such thing as an “ally” with Trump: he’s now bullying Argentina’s Milei by refusing him an essential IMF loan unless he scraps an equally essential currency swap accord with China.

To add insult to injury the Trump administration, specifically Mauricio Claver Carone, Trump’s special envoy for Latin America, justified their bullying on the basis that if Milei doesn’t end the swap accord “China will always be able to extort Argentina.” Which is exactly what THEY are doing!”

In recent years, Argentina has faced significant economic challenges, including high inflation, currency fluctuations, and limited access to international capital markets. The currency swap agreement with China has served as a crucial safety net, providing the country with a means to stabilize its finances and navigate periods of economic turmoil.

Milei has expressed interest in dollarizing the country’s economy, which would involve pegging the Argentine peso to the US dollar. This move would likely require significant support from the US and the IMF and could potentially be facilitated by the termination of the currency swap agreement with China. Milei has also been a vocal advocate for Bitcoin, emphasizing the importance of freedom of currency competition in Argentina.