Weekly Bitcoin (BTC) purchases by Strategy have little to no measurable effect on BTC’s market price, according to VanEck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel.
Sigel pointed out that Strategy-related only accounted for 8.4% of average weekly volume, a figure skewed by four weeks where purchases exceeded 20%.
However, Strategy represented just 3.3% of activity in most weeks, and did not buy BTC in eight of the 27 weeks analyzed.
As a result, Sigel reported a 25% correlation coefficient between Strategy’s weekly Bitcoin purchases and BTC’s end-of-week price and a 28% correlation with BTC’s weekly price change.
Both figures suggest only weak associations that lack predictive or explanatory strength in understanding Bitcoin’s broader price behavior.
Sigel’s analysis also addressed the broader relationship between Bitcoin mining volumes, fund purchases, and secondary market activity.
Over the past 27 weeks, Bitcoin’s secondary trading volumes have been nearly 20x greater than newly mined Bitcoin volumes. Even after factoring in Strategy’s purchases, secondary market activity remained approximately 17x larger than aggregate new supply.
The findings challenge the assumption that structured Bitcoin acquisition programs have a material influence on short-term price action.
Instead, Bitcoin’s price appears driven primarily by broader secondary market forces, consistent with asset market behaviors where large, liquid trading venues dilute the impact of isolated supply or demand events.
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