StanChart says Bitcoin could exceed $120K target for Q2 amid institutional, sovereign boom

Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said Bitcoin (BTC) appears on track to reach new record highs sooner than expected, driven by mounting institutional inflows and a global shift in asset allocation.

In a May 8 investor note shared with CryptoSlate, Kendrick said he initially projected a $120,000 price target for the second quarter. However, he now believes that figure may underestimate the market’s momentum.

He wrote:

“I apologise that my USD120k Q2 target may be too low.”

Based on CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin was trading at $101,751, up 5.66% over the past 24 hours.

Shifting narrative leads to flows

Kendrick said the narrative around Bitcoin has shifted dramatically in recent months, and the flagship crypto, which was once seen primarily as a risk asset, is increasingly viewed as a strategic reserve asset.

He argued that Bitcoin has evolved into a vehicle for reallocating capital out of traditional US equities and into alternative stores of value. He emphasized that the rally is now being driven not by speculation, but by flows, particularly from ETFs and long-term institutional buyers.

Kendrick noted that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken in $5.3 billion in the past three weeks, and after adjusting for basis trades and short hedge positions, the estimated net flows are likely above $4 billion.

Kendrick added that the inflows represent a significant surge in demand that could push prices higher in the coming weeks.

Kendrick also pointed to the growing influence of corporate and sovereign actors in Bitcoin’s recent performance. Strategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings to 555,450 BTC, or 2.6% of the total supply that will ever exist.

The firm’s plan to raise an additional $84 billion to fund further Bitcoin purchases could bring its total share to more than 6% of total supply.

Sovereign and state-level adoption

Meanwhile, sovereign wealth funds and central banks are beginning to follow suit. Kendrick cited Abu Dhabi’s 4,700 BTC-equivalent position in IBIT as of late December and noted that additional long-term buyers have likely joined since then.

He also highlighted recent activity from the Swiss National Bank and Norway’s Norges Bank, both of which have initiated positions in MSTR.

On the policy front, Kendrick flagged New Hampshire’s newly passed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill as a potential tipping point for US state-level adoption. He expects other states to introduce similar legislation aimed at incorporating Bitcoin into their treasury strategies.

As of May 8, Arizona also fully passed legislation establishing a Bitcoin reserve fund, while Texas is on the cusp of approval. Roughly 11 other states are also in the process of making decisions on similar bills.

With more institutional disclosures expected next week via 13F filings, Kendrick warned that Bitcoin’s trajectory may continue to surprise to the upside.

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