PumpSwap Brings in the Cash as Trump Tariffs Weigh on BTC Price

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

With trade tensions escalating, Asian and European stocks extended last week’s declines. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 4%, taking it into correction territory after dropping more than 10% from its record high and European indexes including the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40 opened in the red alongside falling U.S. stock futures.

The backdrop is President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, set to be revealed to the world on April 2 in an event he has dubbed “Liberation Day.” The president plans to impose levies and tariffs on any country deemed to have an unfair trading relationship with the U.S.

“You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens,” Trump said, according to the Financial Times. His words suggest that while the tariffs may initially apply broadly, he is open to making concessions for some countries, the FT said.

On Friday, U.S. equities dropped after a hotter-than-expected reading in core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Market uncertainty may persist with the U.S. jobs report due Friday. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2%, while nonfarm payrolls are projected at 128,000, down from 151,000 the previous month.

Gold is rallying on the back of this uncertainty, surging past $3,100 per ounce for the first time ever — up 1.2% on the day and nearly 20% year-to-date. Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle, hovering just above $80,000. It’s down more than 3% this month and 12% for the quarter, marking its worst performance since fourth-quarter 2022.

Then consider ether (ETH). The second-largest cryptocurrency has performed significantly worse than bitcoin this quarter, losing 46% in a slide that’s the worst since 2018. As a result, the ether-to-bitcoin ratio has dropped to 0.02195, marking its lowest level since May 2020. At that time, bitcoin was trading below $10,000, while ether hovered just above $200. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:
Macro
- April 1, 4:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) U.K. March producer price index (PPI) data.
  - Manufacturing PPI Est. 44.6 vs. Prev. 46.9
- April 1, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases (Flash) eurozone March consumer price index (CPI) data.
  - Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.6%
  - Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.4%
  - Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. 2.3%
  - Unemployment Rate Est. 6.2% vs. Prev. 6.2%
- April 1, 9:00 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
  - Manufacturing PMI Prev. 53
- April 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases Canada March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
  - Manufacturing PMI Prev. 47.8
- April 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) U.S. March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
  - Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.8 vs. Prev. 52.7
- April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases February JOLTs report (job openings, hires, and separations).
  - Job Openings Est. 7.68M vs. Prev. 7.74M
  - Job Quits Prev. 3.266M
- April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases March U.S. manufacturing sector data.
  - ISM Manufacturing PMI Est. 50.3 vs. Prev. 50.3
- April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs plan, announced Feb. 13, takes effect alongside a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins to be managed via a “33/33/33 split among Karpatkey, Avantgarde & Myso, and Gauntlet.” It’s also voting on allocating 10 million ARB into “on-chain strategies designed to generate yield while safeguarding the principal.” Voting ends April 3.
- Sky DAO is discussing increasing the Smart Burn Engine (SBE) rate after a recent executive proposal “resulted in substantial increase to net revenue.”
- March 31: A vote on a burn of 50 million CRO tokens is set to end.
- March 31: GMX to hold a Community Call including a Q&A session and the presentation of proposals by potential bridging & messaging partners for GMX multi chain.
Unlocks
- April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $143.15 million.
- April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $12.85 million.
- April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $14.07 million.
- April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $112.67 million.
- April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.23 million.
Token Listings
- March 31: Kinto (K) to be listed on BingX, Gate.iom MEXC, Kraken, Hotcoin and others.
- March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

Token launchpad Pump.fun’s trading platform PumpSwap, which allows tokens to be traded on its own platform rather than on decentralized exchange Raydium, has traded a cumulative $2.6 billion since its March 20 debut, Dune data shows.
That makes it the Solana ecosystem’s No. 1 protocol in collected fees over the last 24 hours, bringing in $3.29 million, far above the runner-up, DEX aggregator Jupiter, with $2.47 million.
PumpSwap, Dune’s data shows, has had a total of 710,000 traders on the platform and more than 32.39 million swaps since its introduction, giving it a significant share of the Solana DEX ecosystem.
Yet the protocol faces headwinds with the slowdown of the Solana ecosystem’s activity as the memecoin trading frenzy cools. Artemis data shows daily active addresses on Solana for the year dropped from an 8.1 million peak to 4.2 million on March 29.

Derivatives Positioning

The total open interest on all instruments dropped to $101.3 billion, according to data from Laevitas, continuing its downward trend from last week.
The decline suggests a more cautious stance from market participants as they brace for a volatile week that includes the end of the quarter, anticipated announcements on tariffs from President Trump and the March jobs report on Friday.
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations amounted to $229.3 million, with long positions accounting for 79% of the total. Looking at the BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap on Binance, the largest immediate liquidation cluster lies at $81,200, totaling $27.5 million.
The next key clusters are located at $83,100 and $83,600, with liquidations totaling $25.5 million and $24.7 million, respectively. Both levels align closely with the CME gap created over the weekend.
Among tokens with more than $100 million in open interest, the biggest 24-hour increases were seen in EOS (+13.4%), PEPE (+8.99%), TON (+4.85%), and HYPE (+2.55%). The assets with the largest declines in open interest over the last 24 hours include SUI, TAO and NEAR, falling 10.8%, 8.53% and 7.89%, respectively.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 2.98% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $81,535.28 (24hrs: -1.27%)
ETH is down 4.96% at $1,792.22 (24hrs: -1.3%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 4.98% at 2,447.78 (24hrs: -3.36%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 bps at 2.93%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0114% (4.1709% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 104.10
Gold is up 1.3% at $3,126.50/oz
Silver is up 0.95% at $34.97/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -4.05% at 35,617.56
Hang Seng closed -1.31% at 23,119.58
FTSE is down 0.92% at 8,579.15
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.22% at 5,266.50
DJIA closed on Friday -1.69% at 41,583.90
S&P 500 closed -1.97% at 55,80.94
Nasdaq closed -2.7% at 17,322.99
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -1.6% at 24,759.20
S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.52% at 2,429.43
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.2%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.97% at 5,568.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.39% at 19,187.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.63% at 41,588.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 62.36 (0.24%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02196 (0.09%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 835 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $45.7
Total Fees: 6.8 BTC / $589,342
CME Futures Open Interest: 142,520 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 26.3 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.45%

Technical Analysis

XRP, one of the year’s better-performing major altcoins, is again nearing a critical support zone between $1.95 and $2.05.
This region has consistently acted as a strong demand area, with buyers stepping in multiple times over the past four months.
Adding to its significance, the zone aligns with the 2021 all-time high and is now further supported by the daily 200 exponential moving average, which is also gradually converging toward this level.
Acceptance below this key level is likely to result in a larger expansion to the downside, given the loss of a key level that has reliably held as support for several months.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $289.41 (-10.84%), down 3.49% at $279.38 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $173.93 (-7.77%), down 3.2% at $168.37
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.45 (-5.68%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.47 (-8.58%), down 3.69% at $12.01
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.41 (-4.63%), down 2.97% at $7.19
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.48 (+3.28%), down 3.74% at $7.20
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.19 (-8.29%), down 3.62% at $6.93
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.13 (-6.48%), down 2.51% at $12.80
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.86 (-0.16%), down 5.83% at $34.71
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $47.84 (-8.49%), unchanged in pre-market