A crucial point is that Turkish voters seem to have tired of Mr. Erdogan. If elections were held today, Mr. Imamoglu would probably win, according to polls and political analysts. A self-described social democrat, Mr. Imamoglu, 54, is a member of the Republican People’s Party, which Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded in 1919 as a resistance group and which later became the first governing party of the modern Turkish republic. The party is committed to a secular government for Turkey.
Mr. Imamoglu became mayor of Istanbul in 2019 in an upset victory over Mr. Erdogan’s candidate — two upset victories, in fact, because Mr. Erdogan’s party annulled the first vote and Mr. Imamoglu then won a second election more decisively. He has since compiled an impressive governing record, cleaning pollution in the Golden Horn, Istanbul’s main waterway, and providing free milk for children. His stance on external affairs has been moderate; he condemned Hamas for its terrorist attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, and has since criticized Israel for its assault on Gaza. Mr. Erdogan, by contrast, has praised Hamas as a liberation group, and called for Israel’s destruction.
For all their differences — Mr. Imamoglu is a secular progressive, while Mr. Erdogan, 71, is a religious conservative — Mr. Imamoglu has the potential to be a version of what Mr. Erdogan once seemed to be: a pragmatic and popular Turkish leader who could provide stability at home while helping restrain conflicts of the Middle East. In his early years in power, Mr. Erdogan gathered a broad political coalition, brought the army officer corps under civilian control, grew the economy, fostered a moderate Islamism, tried to resolve a long conflict with the Kurdish minority and normalized relations with Greece, a neighbor and longtime rival. His approach prompted George W. Bush and Barack Obama to cultivate relationships with him.
Over time, though, Mr. Erdogan became more extreme, more corrupt and more focused on consolidating power. He took power in 2003 as prime minister and, after being elected president in 2014, moved to change the Constitution to transfer power to that office. Since then, he has often prioritized his authority over everything else. “The healthy paranoia and self-confidence of a successful politician metastasized into egomania and vindictiveness,” Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations has written. “He destroyed every institutional check and balance — such as they were — in the Turkish political system.” The arrest of Mr. Imamoglu is a sign that Mr. Erdogan aspires to be Turkey’s president indefinitely.
His next step toward that goal may be an attempt to avoid the term limits that would prevent him from running for re-election in 2028, when the next election is scheduled. He could do so by calling for earlier elections or changing the Constitution again.
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