Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a knack for survival. The country’s longest serving leader – he has been in power for 18 years over three nonconsecutive periods – has seen off many rivals and outlasted several enemies.
The latest fight is with Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, the Shin Bet.
Netanyahu fired Bar last month due to what he called a breakdown in trust, but the Supreme Court has suspended the dismissal, pending an investigation.
In the meantime, there have been protests against Netanyahu – the prime minister is used to those – and now an affidavit filed by Bar on Monday, in which he lobs several accusations against the Israeli leader.
They include demands from Netanyahu that Bar place his loyalty to him above that of the Supreme Court’s rulings if the two ever clash and that he spy on Netanyahu’s opponents. It all comes as the Shin Bet investigates financial ties between Netanyahu’s office and Qatar.
Scandal after scandal
Netanyahu has denied Bar’s claims, calling his affidavit a “false” one that would be “disproved in detail soon”.
The response follows the Netanyahu playbook when facing opposition – a denial of any accusations made against him, a shifting of the blame and pushing a problem to the future if possible.
The legal cases Netanyahu faces – he is on trial for corruption – are a case in point. The prime minister has been able to drag the court process out for years and most recently has used Israel’s war on Gaza to delay his court appearances.
“There is scandal fatigue in the Israeli public,” Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg told Al Jazeera.
Flaschenberg added that Israeli society’s increased polarisation means another scandal will hardly shift where people stand on the divisive Netanyahu.
“People who are against Netanyahu and against the government see this as another evidence of the corruption, the deterioration of democratic space and the end of Israeli democracy,” he said. “And people from the pro-Netanyahu camp see this as Bar trying to generate a coup against Netanyahu and his right-wing government.”
This polarisation has been aided by the fact the Israeli political opposition is fractured. Opposition figure Benny Gantz was once the challenger to the throne but has been criticised for failing to take strong stances on complicated issues, and there is growing support for him to be replaced as the head of the National Unity political alliance.
“Many Israelis think [the current situation is] an emergency but they don’t really have the tools to change it, and there’s no powerful opposition in the parliament that can do anything about it,” said Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst on Israel with the International Crisis Group.
Strong coalition
The war in Gaza itself is a testament to Netanyahu’s survival skills. Despite being blamed by many Israelis for failing to prevent the October 7, 2023, attacks against Israel, among the deadliest in the country’s history, and unable to free the remaining captives held in Gaza or fully defeat Hamas, Netanyahu remains in power.
That is even as the war grows increasingly unpopular in Israel with 100,000 reservists failing to respond to their call-ups, according to the Israeli-Palestinian +972 Magazine.
And yet Netanyahu is arguably in a stronger position politically than he was at the start of the war, expanding Israeli-occupied territory in Lebanon and Syria, all while seeing the administration of ally President Donald Trump take power in the United States.
Netanyahu’s governing coalition may have lost some figures over time, including former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, but it has become more solidified by shifting further to the right.
“His coalition is very much solid and intact,” Zonszein said. “Throughout the last year and a half, he’s only stabilised his coalition further.”
Netanyahu has increasingly leaned on the ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties like those led by two of the most far-right ministers in his government – Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. While analysts said a shift rightwards has upset many Israelis, there seems to be little chance of change at the moment.
“It would take a very radical step to actually remove Netanyahu from power,” Zonszein said.
“It’s like a grinding, deteriorating situation in which more allegations and evidence come to light,” Zonszein said, speaking of the scandals Netanyahu has faced. “But it doesn’t mean it’s going to change anything on the ground.”
Little hope
A sort of lethargy may have started to set in in some quarters of Israeli society as Netanyahu holds onto power.
His coalition has enough seats in parliament to continue, and its members have their own reasons for wanting to avoid it breaking up.
That means the only way Netanyahu is likely to be removed from power is through elections – the next of which does not need to happen until October 27, 2026.
In theory, the attorney general could determine Netanyahu is unfit to serve, but analysts said that would prove contentious and unlikely to happen. Failing that, the only way Netanyahu might be removed from power would be through elections.
A poll this month from Israel’s Channel 12 showed that the right-wing former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s new party would win a majority if elections were held today. But that alone is not enough to calm the worries of some people in Israel.
“Some Israelis are concerned that there won’t be a free and fair election next year,” Zonszein said.
Flaschenberg said he feared the police could be used by Netanyahu and his allies to suppress voting.
There are, however, some possible moves for the Israeli public to play. Flaschenberg said public strikes have been effective in the past. In mid-2023, a public strike prevented Netanyahu from firing Gallant although another attempt at a strike in late 2024 failed because of a lack of clear demands.
And the furore over the attempted firing of Bar is unlikely to change things. For the pressure to manifest into something tangible against Netanyahu, a number of factors would have to come to fruition.
“If this legal security situation with Ronen Bar and with the Shin Bet will intensify and at the same time the refusal wave that we are seeing or the wave of protests of people from the army against the war, this might shake things up and maybe change course,” Flaschenberg said.
“So I’m not entirely hopeless about what could develop in the next few months,” he said, before adding: “[But] I’m relatively hopeless.”
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