By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market consolidated on Wednesday’s tariff pause-spurred price bounce with memecoins, AI and DeFi tokens standing out as the best-performing crypto sub-sectors. Coins including HYPE, HBAR and SHIB led the recovery.
Bullish technical patterns and a sharp overnight pullback in Treasury market volatility, as represented by the MOVE index, suggested further gains are in the offing. The China-sensitive Australian dollar extended Wednesday’s gain, offering positive cues to risk assets. U.S. equity futures, however, did not reflect that optimism, trading more than 1% lower.
Another note of caution showed in derivatives data. LTC, TON, BCH, BNB and PEPE were the only coins with 24-hour growth in open interest, validating price recovery. Open interest in other majors cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ETH, fell, a sign the recovery was mainly led by the unwinding of bearish bets and not fresh bullish positioning.
President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on China to 125% and reduce others to 10% for 90 days still leaves the U.S. with an average import tax rate of 24% versus 27% before Thursday. That’s still, anti-growth, pro-inflation and anti-risk assets, according to Bloomberg.
In broader crypto market news, the SEC published the 19b-4 filing by Cboe BZX Exchange to list the Fidelity Solana Fund in the Federal Register. That’s said to bring the regulator one step closer to listing the SOL ETF in the U.S.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed consensus among policymakers over the risk of the economy entering stagflation, characterized by higher inflation and slower growth, with some members saying “difficult tradeoffs” could lie ahead of the central bank.
The focus today will be on the U.S. consumer price index data for March, which is forecast to have increased by just 0.1% month-on-month, the slowest pace in eight months, according to FXStreet. A soft print may be dismissed as backward-looking, considering the trade war escalated more recently. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected reading may lift Treasury yields and the dollar. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- April 10, 10:30 a.m.: Status conference for former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
- April 11, 1 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on “Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading” in Washington.
- April 17: EigenLayer (EIGEN) activates slashing on Ethereum mainnet, enforcing penalties for operator misconduct.
- Macro
- April 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March consumer price inflation data.
- Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
- Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
- Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.8%
- April 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended April 5.
- Initial Jobless Claims Est. 223K vs. Prev. 219K
- April 10, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Michelle Bowman as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision. Livestream link.
- April 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March producer price inflation data.
- Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%
- Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.4%
- PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%
- PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.2%
- April 14: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will join U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House for an official working visit.
- April 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March consumer price inflation data.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market
- April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Unlocks
- April 10: Internet Computer (ICP) to unlock 0.57% of its circulating supply worth $13.54 million.
- April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $51.69 million.
- April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) to unlock 5.68% of its circulating supply worth $21.73 million.
- April 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.37% of its circulating supply worth $16.71 million.
- April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating supply worth $26.27 million.
- April 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 20.25% of its circulating supply worth $324.35 million.
- Token Launches
- April 10: Stacks (STX) to be listed on Bitfinex.
- April 10: Streamr (DATA) to be listed on Binance.US.
- April 10: Babylon (BABY) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Bitrue, KuCoin, OKX, and others.
- April 10: Ren (REN), KonPay (KON) and Symbol (XYM) to be delisted from Bybit.
- April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.
Conferences:
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- DeFi-focused upstart Berachain has recorded net outflows of $320 million in the past week, the most among all networks, followed by Arbitrum with just $30 million in exits.
- Berachain’s daily active users dropped from a high of 630,000 on March 3, according to TokenTerminal, to just over 300,000 as of April 8.
- The network’s BERA token is down 40% in a week, shrinking its market cap to $465 million and fully diluted value to $2.1 billion. It got a 12% lift on Thursday after Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, but it’s still a far cry from good news.
- Total value locked is down 23% to $2.7 billion from a peak of $3.5 billion on March 26, DefiLlama data shows. Still, the blockchain enjoys a cult following and is hyped among retail traders making it one to watch when market conditions improve.
- Meanwhile, Ethereum layer-2 Base, backed by Coinbase, has emerged as the top network with over $186 million in net inflows in the past 10 days.
Derivatives Positioning
- BTC, ETH annualized futures basis held steady above 5% during the recent rout, signaling resilient market sentiment.
- Put skews for the two largest cryptocurrencies on Deribit have weakened, but continue to show downside fears out to the June end expiry.
- Flows featured purchases of $100K BTC calls expiring in December, reflecting a bullish long-term outlook.
Market Movements:
- BTC is down 1.74% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $81,748.51 (24hrs: +6.2%)
- ETH is down 4.65%% at $1,595.49 (24hrs: +7.78%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.72% at 2,372.30 (24hrs: +7.55%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 3.69%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0043% (4.7085% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.85% at 102.03
- Gold is up 2.23% at $3,124.6/oz
- Silver is up 1.68% at $30.83/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed +9.13% at 34,609.00
- Hang Seng closed +2.06% at 20,681.78
- FTSE is up 3.97% at 7,984.64
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 5.33% at 4,868.37
- DJIA closed on Wednesday +7.87% at 40,608.45
- S&P 500 closed +9.52% at 5,456.90
- Nasdaq closed +12.16% at 17,124.97
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +5.42% at 23,727.00
- S&P 40 Latin America closed +7.02% at 2,330.16
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 7 bps at 4.29%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 2.13% at 5,374.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 2.44% at 18,818.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.58% at 40,189.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 63.47 (0.34%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01953 (-3.36%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 899 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $41.08
- Total Fees: 5.6 BTC / $438,630
- CME Futures Open Interest: 134,545
- BTC priced in gold: 26.2 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.47%
Technical Analysis
- The per barrel prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil have dropped below the long-held support at $67, suggesting more losses ahead.
- Sliding crude could help compensate for the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs, helping central banks, including the Fed, to cut interest rates and support risk assets in case of a major market instability.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $2296.86 (+24.76%), down 3.64% at $286.06 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $177.09 (+16.91%), down 2.31% at $173
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.19 (+14.9%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.31 (+17.02%), down 2.44% at $12.01
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.38(+12.84%), down 1.56% at $7.26
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.51 (+15.36%), down 3.6% at $7.24
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.63 (+13.2%), down 2.75% at $7.42
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.06 (+13.66%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.16 (+9.98%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $43.14 (+7.47%), up 8.92% at $46.99
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flow: -$127.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $35.61 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$11.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.36 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.37 million
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- The chart shows the breakdown of BTC options block trades on Deribit. Block trades are large trades executed on over-the-counter tech platforms and then listed on Deribit.
- Selling call options has been the most popular play, a sign market participants are betting on a drop in volatility and slow price ascent.
While You Were Sleeping
- China State Media Hints at Rate Cuts to Counter Trump’s Tariffs (Bloomberg): Front-page commentary in the state-run Securities Daily urged rate cuts and lower bank reserve requirements to fight deflation and offset Trump’s tariffs.
- Russia, United States to Hold Talks on Diplomatic Missions (Reuters): Talks in Istanbul aim to resolve embassy issues, including restrictions on diplomat movements and frozen assets such as consulates, trade missions, and historic estates.
- Crypto Investors Flee Spot Bitcoin, Ether ETFs on Tariff-Driven Uncertainty (CoinDesk): U.S.-listed spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw outflows Wednesday even as cryptocurrency prices surged.
- Bitcoin Eyes $87K After Double Bottom Breakout; Dogecoin, XRP Bulls Look to Establish Control (CoinDesk): Bitcoin rebounded from two recent lows near $74,600 and broke above $80,800, a move analysts say could push it toward $87,000.
- Binance Gains Market Share as Bitcoin Volume Declined 77% From Yearly Peak: CryptoQuant (CoinDesk): A volume drop of such magnitude suggests traders and investors are losing interest or confidence.
- NFT Marketplace Magic Eden Buys Trading App Slingshot (CoinDesk): Slingshot allows trading tokens from a single USDC balance, removing the need for wallet setup, gas fees or moving assets across blockchains, expanding Magic Eden beyond Solana to all chains.
In the Ether
#Memecoins #DeFi #Lead #Market #Rebound
