In brief
- Amberdata data shows only a 12% chance of ETH exceeding $5,000 by December 2025.
- Retail traders are targeting $3,000 while institutions eye $3,500 by June.
- Open interest in ETH options has returned to December highs despite cheap volatility.
Ethereum options markets are pricing in a lower chance to surpass even conservative targets before the year ends, while volatility has stayed put despite increasing trader demand.
Those factors convey a broader uncertainty about Ethereum’s trajectory, even as the crypto market matures and attracts sophisticated capital.
That’s according to data shared by digital asset and market intelligence platform Amberdata, whose director of derivatives, Greg Magadini, told Decrypt that investor appetite for options has returned.
“Looking at the options market, we’re finally seeing a return towards appetite for options, but volatility remains inexpensive,” he said, noting how current bets on Ethereum remain split.
Options contracts are financial agreements allowing investors to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price if they choose. In crypto, they provide the option, but not the obligation, to buy or sell at agreed prices.
These derivatives allow traders to establish positions with defined risk parameters: buyers can only lose the premium paid, while sellers collect premiums upfront.
Magadini’s projections come as Ethereum has lagged behind Bitcoin this year, with investors tuning their attention to the alpha crypto, particularly as the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas gets underway this week.
The conference, compared with its previous iteration in July, could offer a “useful analogue,” QCP Capital observed in a Tuesday note.
“At the time, a keynote by President Trump coincided with a sharp spike in 1-day implied vols above 90,” the Singapore-based digital asset trading firm wrote.
That was soon followed by a swift reversal and a nearly 30% decline in BTC within two days — a piece of crypto history that continues to shape market memory.
Still, conservative pricing reflects a divergence between retail and institutional expectations, as risk appetites among groups maintain differing profiles.
“On-screen traders (retail) are betting on $3000 by the end of the month, while institutions are betting $3500 by the end of June,” he said.
Still, despite the cautious price targets, the market looks considerably more positive, suggesting that traders are actively positioning even as their price expectations remain subdued.
“Open interest is returning to ETH as well,” Magadini said, with levels now parrying “back to December highs when the market was very optimistic.”
Ethereum, meanwhile, has gained approximately 4% over the past week, rising to around $2,647 at the time of writing, per CoinGecko data.
Open interest for Ethereum derivatives, meanwhile, stands at roughly $35 billion, up 8.8%, according to data from CoinGlass. ETH’s OI-weighted funding rate remains positive.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
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