Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) is facing a weaker outlook as uncertainties introduced by President Donald Trump’s on-and-off tariff threats cast a shadow over retail crypto activity, analysts at Oppenheimer wrote in a report.
The investment bank cut its full-year trading volume forecast by 19% to $1.3 trillion and its first-quarter estimate to $380 billion, down 13% from the previous quarter as the appetite for risk declined.
Despite a generally more supportive tone from Washington — with pro-crypto signals from the White House, Congress and regulators — the analysts said the market hasn’t fully embraced the shift.
“Since the election, we have seen the most pro-crypto President, Administration, Congress, regulators, executive orders, and SEC statements, that are meant to signal to the world that the US is open for blockchain businesses to attract capital, projects, and talents,” analyst Owen Lau wrote. “During the process for the public to believe in such a day-and-night move, it’s unfortunate to see Trump’s on-and-off again tariffs have driven bear market concern, recession fear, and pullback of retail trading,”
Coinbase stock has fallen 30% this year, underperforming bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, which are down 10% and 8%, respectively. While those numbers mark an improvement from the 2022 downturn — when COIN dropped 86% — they still highlight the platform’s sensitivity to broader macro signals.
Oppenheimer also lowered its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for revenue and earnings and cut its shares price target to $279 from $388, saying that retail participation may remain subdued during the policy uncertainty. It has an outperform rating on the shares, which fell 1.2% to $173.39 on Wednesday.
One upside: market share. Coinbase accounted for 69% of U.S. spot crypto trading volume in February, gaining ground against rivals like Robinhood (HOOD). Maintaining that lead will depend on whether the market can shake off tariff jitters and regain momentum.
Oppenheimer said despite the near-term hurdles, it remains optimistic about Coinbase’s long-term potential.
“As a focused leader in crypto with optionality in tokenization and payments use cases, we believe COIN can command a premium. In our view, COIN is a strong rebound stock if/when tariff tensions deescalate,” Lau wrote.
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