Bitcoin’s rise above $100K buoyed by institutional inflows and macro tailwinds – Bitfinex

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) dropping by 2.5% in the past 24 hours to trade near $101,600 and triggering nearly $200 million in liquidations of open long positions, the latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report highlighted that on-chain metrics remain constructive.

The current price action follows a move that saw Bitcoin rally from a recent low near $74,000 to as high as $105,660, just 3.6% below its all-time high of $109,590.

Bitcoin remains in the six-figure territory despite a minor pullback on May 12. As of press time, BTC was trading at $102,606, down 1.53% over the past 24 hours, based on CryptoSlate data.

The recovery brought BTC back above the $100,000 threshold for the first time in over three months and reflected a broader shift in macro sentiment, including a repricing of risk assets following the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting.

The report noted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting introduced optionality without triggering market anxiety. 

While the Fed left interest rates unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged signs of slowing economic activity and softened consumer demand, opening the door to a more balanced approach to future rate decisions. 

Simultaneously, the de-escalating tariff tensions between the US and China reduced geopolitical tail risks. These conditions supported renewed momentum for assets such as Bitcoin, which have displayed resilience relative to equities in recent weeks.

Stronger realized cap and softer unrealized losses

This shift in macro positioning has contributed to realigning capital allocation across the crypto sector. 

Bitcoin’s realized cap, a measure of the aggregate cost basis of coins in circulation, reached a record $889 billion this week, suggesting net inflows into the network and heightened investor conviction. 

Over the past 30 days, the realized cap has increased by 2.1%, indicating fresh capital support for recent gains rather than speculative churn or leverage-based trading.

Another key on-chain development is the declining amount of BTC held in unrealized losses. At the bottom of the March-April correction, more than 5 million BTC were underwater, about 25% of the active supply. 

This week, that figure has dropped to around 700,000 BTC, or less than 3% of the active supply, suggesting a transition toward a profit-dominated market structure. This type of supply migration has historically supported higher price bases and greater demand depth.

Institutions coming back

The report noted that institutional behavior continues to reinforce these structural shifts. It highlighted that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded over $920 million in net inflows over the past two weeks.

BlackRock’s IBIT contributed more than half of the total. US trading hours concentrated these flows, with approximately 70% to 80% of activity occurring between 10 A.M. and 4 P.M. Eastern Time.

 The report argued that this is evidence of systematic allocation strategies rather than discretionary trading behavior, especially given the subdued volatility and steadily climbing spot volumes.

Additionally, ETF flows appear increasingly uncorrelated with short-term price volatility. This decoupling, combined with strong net inflows and ongoing macro recalibration, has contributed to stability across Bitcoin markets despite the latest retracement. 

Flow patterns and price resilience suggest that institutional demand functions as a support level, softening drawdowns and providing a floor for BTC valuations. US Treasury market movements further support the risk-on tilt.

The 10-year yield fell by nine basis points weekly, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped below 104.50. Additionally, as inferred from 5Y5Y swaps, inflation expectations remained anchored, aligning with favorable liquidity conditions for digital assets.

If macro tailwinds persist, Bitcoin’s current price levels could be a consolidation base for further accumulation.

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