In brief
- Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $111,000 this week before falling 1.8% to $108,531 after President Trump announced plans for a 50% tariff on the European Union.
- Analysts described this rally as more structurally sound than previous cycles, driven by institutional flows and low leverage rather than speculative excess, with over $1.3 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in five days.
- Market sentiment has turned more cautious, with the percentage of traders betting Bitcoin will reach $115,000 by Sunday dropping from 24% to just 15.4% following Trump’s tariff announcement.
Before President Donald Trump floated the idea of a “straight 50% Tariff on the European Union” Friday morning, Bitcoin blasted through $111,000 this week, setting a new all-time high.
The BTC optimism was prompting analysts to debate whether this rally is fundamentally different from those of the past. But again: That was before the president’s market tanking news on his Truth Social account,
In the past hour Bitcoin has fallen 1.8% and was changing hands for $108,531, according to CoinGecko.
Ethereum and alts were lagging, too. ETH had dropped 4% compared to its price yesterday and is currently trading for just above $2,500. XRP has dipped 3.7% compared to this time yesterday and is currently trading for $2.34.
Analysts had been feeling optimistic about the latest rally. Instead of being driven by speculative excess, many believed the surge reflected deeper structural strength backed by institutional flows, tighter market conditions, and shifting investor behavior.
But BTC didn’t get above $111,000 easily this week. It briefly slipped in response to a weak Treasury auction earlier this week before rebounding to $111,807 early Friday in Asia.
In its latest market note, Singapore-based QCP Capital described the uptrend as “more structurally robust than the last,” citing reduced leverage, resilient price action even after a weak Treasury auction, and a marked divergence from gold, which has plateaued near $3,300.
“This rally feels different,” they wrote. “Less frothy momentum-chasing and stronger fundamental underpinnings.”
Crypto exchange MEXC’s COO, Tracy Jin, told Decrypt the rally “feels more structurally sound than past cycles,” aligning with QCP Capital’s view that fundamentals, not speculation, are driving the move.
She pointed to Bitcoin’s highest-ever weekly close at around $106,500 after six straight weeks of gains.
Jin observed that leverage remains low, with futures premiums at just 7%, “compared to peaks above 30% in overheated markets,” and said that over $1.3 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in just five days indicates that “institutional demand is leading the charge.”
“Approximately 50 million Americans now own Bitcoin, compared to 37 million who own gold,” Jin noted, highlighting the growing normalization of Bitcoin as part of mainstream financial holdings.
By contrast, analysts at B2BINPay focused less on near-term flows and more on the long-term structural rhythm of Bitcoin’s price history.
They described the rally as a continuation of Bitcoin’s cyclical pattern, telling Decrypt that “it’s not unprecedented or anomalous,” but part of a broader trend typically marked by 50% retracements.
The analysts also cautioned, however, that the correction phase may still lie ahead, making it premature to benchmark this cycle definitively against prior ones.
On the growing divergence from gold, B2BINPAY said it “speaks more to investor psychology and risk appetite than to any fundamental decoupling.”
Traders were already dubious of whether Bitcoin had enough momentum to breach $115,000 in the near term, but Trump’s tariff bombshell has intensified skepticism.
On Myriad, a decentralized prediction platform created by Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN, about 24% of bettors thought Bitcoin had a fighting chance to be above $115,000 on Sunday, May 25. But since then, the optimistic crowd had shrunk to just 15.4% of users.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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