Bitcoin could emerge as a major winner from the intensifying trade conflict between the United States and China.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes aggressive monetary policy responses, particularly currency devaluations, could trigger increased Bitcoin adoption.
In an April 8 post on X, Hayes suggested that devaluing the Chinese Yuan (CNY) might trigger renewed interest in Bitcoin as investors seek to preserve value outside the traditional financial system.
He pointed to historical precedents, referencing similar patterns in 2013 and 2015 when currency devaluations coincided with a surge in Bitcoin adoption.
If history repeats itself, Hayes believes 2025 could bring another wave of capital inflows into crypto, driven by Chinese investors looking to escape currency risk.
According to him:
“If not the Fed then the PBOC will give us the yachtzee ingredients. CNY devaluation could lead to Chinese capital flowing into Bitcoin. It worked in 2013, 2015, and can work in 2025.”
To support Hayes’ outlook, Bybit CEO Ben Zhou highlighted the relationship between yuan devaluation and Bitcoin demand. He explained that China may respond to US tariffs by weakening the CNY, historically leading to increased capital inflows into Bitcoin.
Zhou said:
“China will try to lower RMB to counter the tariff, historically, whenever RMB drops, a lot of Chinese capital flow into BTC, bullish for BTC.”
Essentially, this strategy would make Chinese exports more attractive globally by reducing their cost, but it could also trigger capital flight, fueling interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin.
US-China trade war
The renewed trade war began after US President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all imports and a higher 34% on Chinese goods. In retaliation, China announced its 34% tariff on American imports, effective April 10.
The US has since warned of further penalties—up to 50%—if negotiations stall. China, however, has promised to defend its position firmly.
Amid this uncertainty, Hayes suggested that global powers may begin to accumulate neutral assets like Bitcoin.
He believes this shift could become a significant price catalyst, possibly pushing Bitcoin’s value to $1 million in the long run.
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