Bitcoin has delivered the strongest 60-day returns following major global disruptions since 2020, outperforming both equities and gold across several high-volatility periods.
The top digital asset posted an average 37% two‑month return across events since 2020, versus 3.5% for the equity gauge and 6.2% for gold.
BlackRock data shared by Sam Callahan breaks down the performance of the S&P500, gold, and Bitcoin after historical global crises.
During the 60 days following the U.S.–Iran escalation in January 2020, Bitcoin rose 20%, while the S&P 500 fell 7% and gold gained 6%.
In the same timeframe after the COVID-19 outbreak was declared in March 2020, Bitcoin climbed 21%, reversing a steep initial 25% drop over the first 10 days. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and gold recorded 2% and 3% gains, respectively.
| Event | Date | SPX (10D) | Gold (10D) | BTC (10D) | SPX (60D) | Gold (60D) | BTC (60D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S.–Iran Escalation | Jan. 3, 2020 | 2% | 0% | 12% | -7% | 6% | 20% |
| COVID Outbreak | Mar. 11, 2020 | -20% | -9% | -25% | 2% | 3% | 21% |
| 2020 U.S. Election Challenges | Nov. 3, 2020 | 7% | -1% | 19% | 12% | -1% | 131% |
| Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine | Feb. 24, 2022 | 1% | 2% | -6% | 3% | 9% | 15% |
| U.S. Regional Banking Crisis | Mar. 9, 2023 | -2% | 10% | 25% | 4% | 11% | 32% |
| Yen Carry Trade Unwinding | Aug. 5, 2024 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 9% | 3% |
| Trump’s “Liberation Day” | Apr. 2, 2025 | -7% | 7% | 0% | (-5.72% 15D) | (+6.80% 15D) | (-0.34% 15D) |
Following the U.S. election challenges in November 2020, Bitcoin surged 131% in 60 days. This compared to a 12% rise in the S&P 500 and a 1% decline in gold. The period included heightened uncertainty around the electoral process and stimulus negotiations.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin returned 15% over 60 days. Gold outperformed equities, gaining 9% versus the S&P 500’s 3% uptick. Bitcoin initially fell 6% in the first 10 days before recovering.
The March 2023 U.S. regional banking crisis also saw a sharp move in Bitcoin, which gained 32% in 60 days. Gold rose 11%, while the S&P 500 climbed 4%. This period included liquidity concerns and institutional fallout.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s response to Japan’s Yen carry trade unwinding in August 2024 was muted, rising just 3% in 60 days. Gold gained 9%, and the S&P 500 added 7%.
Thus, data shows Bitcoin repeatedly recovering faster and outperforming other assets across major market dislocations, particularly within a two-month window.
The 60‑day mark for tariffs announced on “Liberation Day” arrives Jun. 1; Bitcoin is flat over the first 15 days, with the S&P 500 down 5.72% and gold up 6.8%.
After 60 days, Bitcoin has only underperformed gold once in 2024 during the Yen carry trade unwinding.
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