In brief
- American Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected pope Thursday, becoming the first U.S.-born pontiff in history.
- Prevost’s surprise victory upended global betting markets, where he had less than a 2% chance across major platforms.
- Over $40 million was wagered on the papal outcome, with some long-shot bettors netting five-figure profits.
In a stunning turn that upended global betting markets, American Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected pope Thursday, becoming the first U.S.-born pontiff and defying odds that heavily favored European contenders.
After Pope Francis died on April 25, 2025, speculation quickly turned to who would succeed him as leader of the Catholic Church. Many expected an Italian cardinal or one from a predominantly Catholic country.
Ahead of the conclave, UK-based OddsChecker ranked Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the favorite with +225 odds (a 30.8% implied probability), followed by Cardinals Luis Antonio Tagle at +275 (26.7%) and Pierbattista Pizzaballa at +500 (16.7%).
Prevost was not listed among the top five contenders.
After black smoke signaled on Wednesday that no pope had been chosen, bettors on Polymarket entered the second day of the conclave with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the front-runner. He drew $2.6 million in volume, followed by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle with $2.3 million.
Meanwhile, on Kalshi, another U.S.-based prediction market, Parolin surged to 68% as white smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel on Thursday, signaling that the conclave had chosen a new pope. By comparison, Prevost had only 1.2%, trailing behind Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson at 4.2%.
At the same time, Myriad Markets—run by DASTAN, Decrypt’s parent company—gave Cardinal Pietro Parolin a 27% chance and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle 23%, with roughly half of all bets placed on “Other.”
With millions wagered on the outcome, most gamblers walked away disappointed, while a few, however, struck gold. Kalshi reported that one bettor earned $52,641 after placing a successful wager on Prevost.
On Polymarket, another bettor turned a $1,000 wager on Prevost into $64,742 by backing the long shot. In total, gamblers wagered $40 million on who would be the next pope.
Despite long odds and low betting confidence, Prevost’s surprise election reminds us that dark horse candidates can rise to the top in sports, politics, and even the most tradition-bound institutions.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
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