In brief
- Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 price level for the first time since February amid upcoming US-China trade talks and a potential UK trade deal.
- Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick believes Bitcoin will reach $120,000 by the end of Q2, potentially influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
- Institutional investment continues to grow with positive ETF inflows of $142 million on Wednesday, as global institutions increasingly view Bitcoin as a way to diversify from USD assets.
Bitcoin tapped the $100,000 territory for the first time since February, as the U.S. gears up for trade talks with China and prepares to unveil a deal with the UK.
Per data from CoinGecko, the leading cryptocurrency briefly crossed $100,000 before dropping back to its current price of around $99,500, up 2.6% on the day and 3.5% on the week.
A “major trade deal” teased by U.S. President Donald Trump on social media platform Truth Social, would mark a diplomatic milestone following the economic turmoil sparked by sweeping tariffs imposed as part of his “Liberation Day” agenda.
The news comes as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to travel to Switzerland for talks with China, the first meeting to discuss the trade war since Trump’s tariffs announcement. Bessent has suggested that the talks would be about “de-escalation,” rather than a comprehensive trade deal.
But Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick thinks Bitcoin will easily rise even higher before the end of June. “My specific target of $120,000 for Q2 looks very achievable,” he wrote in a note shared with Decrypt.
He also pointed out that the deadline for large institutional investors arrives next week, meaning that all the ETF issuers, MicroStrategy, and other Wall Street heavyweights will disclose how much Bitcoin exposure they have on their balance sheets.
“At the end of December Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund held a small 4,700 Bitcoin equivalent position in IBIT. I would expect that to have increased and other long-term type buyers to have joined in too,” Kendrick said. “Notably, the Swiss National Bank recently started buying MSTR, joining Norges Pension Fund.”
By the end of his note, Kendrick appeared to have convinced himself that his $120,000 Bitcoin price target might be too conservative.
“I apologize that my $120,000 Q2 target may be too low,” he finished.
Bitcoin rallied from around $94,000 earlier in this week, following the Federal Reserve’s policy update Wednesday in which it left interest rates unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to “heightened uncertainty” while lauding the “solid position” of the U.S. economy.
Marco Lim, managing director at Solowin Holdings and founding partner of MaiCapital, told Decrypt that Bitcoin’s ability to reach $120,000 has a lot to do with how the Fed handles policy in the coming months.
“The potential for Bitcoin to reach $120,000 is closely tied to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions,” he said. “If the market is pricing in three rate cuts, this could significantly boost Bitcoin’s price, especially after it tests and breaks the $100,000 resistance level.”
Sentiment among crypto traders has swung to the upside, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 65, signalling Greed, up from last week’s Neutral position. “The crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects heightened optimism among investors, reinforcing a bullish market sentiment,” LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said in a note shared with Decrypt. Risk-on sentiment has been bolstered by “easing geopolitical risks, including renewed U.S.-China trade talks and reduced tensions in global trade dynamics,” as well as “robust institutional interest,” Kruger added.
On decentralized prediction marketplace Myriad (launched by Decrypt‘s parent company DASTAN), that optimism is expected to persist, with 91% expecting the Index to hold above 65 by close of play Friday.
Flows to spot Bitcoin ETFs also flipped positive Wednesday with $142 million in inflows, after outflows of $85 million on Tuesday. Per data from Farside Investors, Ark Invest’s ARKB accounted for the majority of Wednesday’s inflows, pulling in $54.7 million.
The crypto ETFs have been major beneficiaries of large scale asset managers warming to the idea of BTC as a way to diversify their portfolios, according to Peter Chung, head of research at Singapore-based algorithmic crypto trading firm Presto.
“Global institutions now realizes the need to diversify away from USD assets, which would benefit both gold and Bitcoin,” he told Decrypt. “Major economies around the world are all rushing to provide monetary boost to offset the growth slowdown amid the tariff wars, which will benefit risk assets such as Bitcoin.”
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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