While Australia may not be holding a presidential election, the leaders of the major parties carry the disproportionate burden of personifying the contest: they are the human pub test.
The “pub test” may appear a somewhat redundant measure given how few of us actually convene over a cold one to ruminate about the world at the end of the day any more. We are either at the gym or scrolling through our streams or doing both at the same time.
But much as common law has its man on the Clapham omnibus, the pub test remains our default jury of political commonsense, invoked to determine whether a perk is reasonable, whether a policy makes sense and whether the bloke in charge is fair dinkum.
Elections have been won and lost on these crude assessments that work to shortcut the ideological and policy contests into a user-friendly binary: think Beazley’s ticker, Latham’s inexperience, Morrison’s artifice.
This election cycle Peter Dutton has been at pains to define the pub test through the prism of his strength and Albanese’s weakness. The election had barely been called and there he was, downing a XXXX and accusing Albo of being “weak as water” while his opponent supped on a non-alcoholic ginger beer just a few suburbs away.
Will it work? Leadership attributes in this week’s Guardian Essential Report highlights the logic behind his approach.
While the findings reinforce our low regard for politicians as a species, there are differences that Dutton wants to draw out. He is rated less likely to change his opinion, more decisive and more likely to stand up to vested interests. Squint and you can see the outline of a strong leader who will just get things done.
At the same time, Dutton is seen as much more aggressive than Albanese, a quality that is constantly reinforced by his rightwing media cheerleaders. In contrast Albanese is perceived as the more reliable and calm of the two.
Dutton is a little harder for Labor to pin down. Is he the former Queensland cop who still walks the thin blue line, or the multi-property investor who has made himself a very wealthy man?
When it comes to his policy agenda to wind back climate action and cut a swathe through the public sector, is he a menace or is he a flake? Or is he menacing because he is a flake?
To answer these questions, we may need to delve deeper into our leaders’ souls, with our irregular Essential pub test, a series of more homespun character attributes we have been exploring since 2017.
To be clear, on all these measures more than a third of respondents see no difference between the two (we have removed these from the table to capture the points of contrast).
On everything except investment advice, where Dutton’s property portfolio clearly trumps Albo’s holiday house, the PM is preferred: from offering a loan, to breaking bread, to giving advice to the kids and in keeping a secret.
But it is the literal pub test where Albo stands out. Maybe that’s no surprise as he has a beer named after him while craft brewers are still trying to come up with a bitter that would do Dutton justice.
Is this just polling froth? Looking back over our series, there is a credible story behind each Essential pub test.
Bill Shorten almost upset Malcolm Turnbull by portraying him as the last person anyone could relate to over a quiet drink, although, to be fair, his own side landed the issue when Abbott’s former chieftain Peta Credlin dubbed him “Mr Harbourside Mansions”.
Scott Morrison’s daggy dad construct “ScoMo” then wrong-footed Labor, convincing a majority that he would be better company at Cronulla Leagues. By 2022 Morrison had pulled out of his shout one time too many, but he still had a narrow advantage over Albo.
So where does this leave Albo and Dutton? Being a preferred drinking companion does not win you an election, but it does speak to who the electorate is more willing to spend their time engaging with.
The problem for Peter Dutton is that he is defined by what he opposes: clean energy, workers, migrants, public servants, the woke. He’s like the bloke who is always having a gripe about the world with nothing much to contribute. They get tiring.
Donald Trump is unwittingly offering a handbrake on Dutton’s more boorish tendencies. After a few false moves, the decision to stand with the PM on tariffs by criticising but not retaliating was the smart move. It does, however, take a bit of the gloss off the strongman persona.
Dutton’s other drinking buddies are a less positive influence. The Advance Australia zealots and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots’ determination to ramp up the anger may have the same repellent effect as GetUp! and Bob Brown’s bus had on the 2019 election.
It remains to be seen whether Dutton will try to harness these vibes. As we showed with the Essential “lad report”, there are new friends out there to be made, but the ensuing chaos makes for a ratty night on the tiles.
In contrast, with his low-fi, low-alcohol, heaps normal schtick, the prime minister might prove to be the more reliable drinking partner who convinces us that while he is not the life of the party, at least he won’t spill the drinks.
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