In brief
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s chances of winning the upcoming election are improving on prediction markets.
- Meanwhile, Bitcoin fan and Elon Musk favorite Pierre Poilievre has a dwindling chance, per betting markets and traditional models.
- Poilievre was well ahead in the polls to be the next Prime Minister of Canada back in January.
Bitcoin critic and CBDC fan Mark Carney is favored to win Canada’s election later this month, according to both crypto betting markets and other prediction models.
It was just earlier this month that 74% of speculators had bet on the former Bank of England boss—who took over as prime minister from Justin Trudeau in March following a party vote—winning the prime minister election on April 28 on prediction market MYRIAD.
But that likelihood has now soared to over 82%, while Bitcoin-friendly libertarian Pierre Poilievre’s chances have dropped. (Disclosure: MYRIAD is owned by Decrypt‘s parent company, DASTAN.)
Over on crypto prediction platform Polymarket, Carney has an 83% chance, while Poilievre’s odds of winning stand at 17%.
Looking at the odds from a non-degen perspective, The Economist’s prediction model on Wednesday gave Carney’s Liberal Party an 86% chance of winning.
The tide has turned since January, when Tesla CEO Elon Musk endorsed crypto-enthusiastic candidate Poilievre. Back then, prediction market Polymarket gave him an 89% chance of winning the role.
But months later, after the price of Bitcoin took a hit and President Trump returned to the White House, right-winger Poilievre is no longer a favorite.
Canadians appear to favor Carney for taking a tough stance on President Trump, who became a hot topic in the Canadian election after suggesting that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state.
Poilievre, who has also adopted a bellicose stance towards Trump but otherwise has similar politics to the U.S. president, may not be spewing enough anti-MAGA rhetoric to get love from Canadians.
Conservative Poilievre has been pro-Bitcoin for years: He said back in 2022 that due to government mismanagement of the Canadian dollar, “Canadians should have the freedom to use other money, such as Bitcoin.”
His comments came when Canadian truckers were protesting nationwide vaccination mandates amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and receiving Bitcoin donations.
On the other hand, Carney—who worked as Bank of England governor—has spoken about how the North American country needs a CBDC, or central bank digital currency. Many Bitcoiners have adopted an anti-CBDC stance due to privacy concerns.
Carney has made critical statements against Bitcoin in the past, most notably in 2018, when during a Bank of England speech he took aim at the cryptocurrency’s trading volatility and merits as a store of value. He also called out what he saw as “serious deficiencies” with Bitcoin’s fixed-supply model.
Edited by Andrew Hayward
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