There’s a scene in the very first episode of Yellowstone where the casino-owning Native American chief explains the basic financial logic of all casinos to an uncomfortable politician: “The gamblers’ money is like a river – flowing one way. Our way.” Oh no, hang on, wait … Not all casinos. In fact, it could be that when all is said and done, the historians looking for that one key fact to illustrate the eventual legacy of Donald Trump will not go with his two stunning presidential election wins. Instead, they’ll point out that in the 90s, he literally managed to bankrupt casinos. To repeat: this is a man who somehow contrived to bankrupt multiple casinos. Is he the guy to reshape the entire global economic order of the past century? Let’s find out! Either way, only 45 months of his presidency left to go.
Anyway: tariffs. Rather than using actual tariff data, the United States of America this week appeared to have genuinely used a basic ChatGPT-style model to calculate the tariffs it would immediately impose on friends/foes/arctic wildlife. This was called either “liberation day”, or the “declaration of economic independence” (sadly not abbreviated – yet – to DEI).
It was hosted in the White House Rose Garden by ancient gameshow MC Donald Trump, who was accidentally wearing his indoors makeup outdoors. Like many, I’ve tried to mentally detach from the fact that we live in a time when the US defence secretary has a neck tattoo or whatever, but it makes me feel at least partially alive that the presidential paint job still occasionally retains the power to horrify. Trump leered his way through his tariff presentation while appearing to have been made up by the technique that provided the climax to Joe Wilkinson’s RNLI speech on Last One Laughing (If you saw it, you know). It’s not so much foundation any more as cosmetic bukkake.
Forgive me, back to the economics. We know that Trump has always been obsessed with starkly simple numbers. Network TV ratings. The overall trade balance in goods (not services). And – before this week – the stock market. But now, like Bruno, we don’t talk about the stock market, no no no … Certainly not since it dropped 1,679 points in one day alone (the day after Trump announced the tariffs). Although please enjoy the pure hilarious happenstance of scheduling which meant that that day’s opening bell to signal the start of trading on Wall Street had been rung by the staff of wingnut media outlet Newsmax and Rudy Giuliani. Ding, dong – now just watch those stocks crap the bed. Seriously, Rudy – everything you touch! Then again we do have to remember that it was Trump himself who last year declared that “stock markets are crashing, jobs numbers are terrible, we are heading to World War III and we have two of the most incompetent ‘leaders’ in history. This is not good!!!”
Is he still marking presidencies on the same metrics? Alas, reporters are going to need to shout that inquiry over the fairways, as Trump has now repaired to one of his Floridian golf courses to host the first domestic event of 2025 on the Saudi-owned LIV Golf tour. It’s called class: look it up. And no doubt it’ll be fun discussing falling oil prices with whoever is over from Riyadh for the event.
Trump did offer one last comment on the tariffs before donning his big-boy golf pants. “The operation is over,” he said. “The patient lived, and is healing. The prognosis is that the patient will be far stronger, bigger, better and more resilient than ever before.” A speech I am positive I have heard delivered word-for-word on The Simpsons by ultra-shady physician Dr Nick. Meanwhile, in the back of shot, a Frankenfigure with a fish’s head grafted to a man’s body sits bolt upright, convulses wildly and dies within three foot of the operating table. Listen, you can’t save ‘em all.
Incidentally, Trump is not the only one reaching for medical metaphors. Take the chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, who this morning observed mildly: “We often hear that when the US sneezes the global economy catches cold. This is not the US sneezing. This is the US cutting off its own arm. The self-inflicted economic cost naturally weakens the dollar.” Mm. One indication that an economic plan is going badly is that there’s no one responding to the above by going “ooh, but is cutting off your arm even a bad thing?”. Different circumstances, of course, but there was a similar mood in the air in the UK after Liz Truss’s “mini-budget”.
Speaking of Blighty, Keir Starmer seems to have continued his policy of not poking the bear, and indeed to pretend to really enjoy it when the bear pokes you really hard somewhere really painful. According to Trump, Starmer is “very happy” about the 10% tariff kick he just took up the UK’s backside.
Still, perhaps there are already signs of slight directional pivots in the West Wing. Having watched global markets tumble while the White House absolutely insisted that the tariffs were not lazy ChatGPT-assisted gambits to provoke immediate trade negotiations, it wasn’t too long before Trump’s son Eric was venturing on to X with a take. “I wouldn’t want to be the last country that tries to negotiate a trade deal with @realDonaldTrump,” gibbered Trump minor. “The first to negotiate will win – the last will absolutely lose,” he continued. “I have seen this movie my entire life …” Weird, because I don’t remember this particular scene in the aforementioned Trump casino movie – or indeed several epic flops in the franchise.
Yet this was also a week where we were reminded that life is not just about the adult sons with whom we are saddled, but the adult sons we choose. Fire up the elegy muzak, then, for there is sadness in the air. Reports – hotly denied, which means nothing – suggest that Elon Musk will fairly soon be leaving his post at the “department of government efficiency” and returning to the private sector. Yeah, let that sink out. And then try to picture his Doge leaving party. “Sorry boys, tariffs mean we can only afford US beer. And, unfortunately, we eliminated spending on paper cups. On the plus side, the president’s makeup artist is just going to spray Bud Light in the general directions of your mouths, and she has a 30% accurate aim. Open wide, victors!”
All of which would seem to conclude this week’s look at Trump’s river, which a) is a river of effluent and b) only flows one way. Our way. What can I tell you? Buy shares in paddles today.
#Trumps #tariffs #real #hallucination #afraid #answer #Marina #Hyde
