In brief
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.5%, up from 4.1% in early April, as easing U.S.-China trade tensions lifted market sentiment and dampened expectations for Fed rate cuts.
- April inflation surprised to the downside, but analysts suggest firms may have front-loaded purchases ahead of tariffs, delaying the true impact on consumer prices.
- Despite rising real yields, FalconX’s David Lawant argues that Bitcoin’s identity as “emerging digital gold” continues to mature, bolstering its long-term institutional case.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose above 4.5% on Tuesday, its highest level in over a month, as investors responded to a temporary rollback in tariffs between the U.S. and China and reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy easing.
The move mirrors a sharp reversal from early April, when yields briefly dipped below 4.1% before climbing to a peak of 4.49%. Bitcoin, by comparison, is sitting just below its January all-time high, currently trading at $104,000, CoinGecko data shows.
Analysts say the joint 90-day tariff reduction between Washington and Beijing has helped ease fears of a trade-driven recession, lifting risk sentiment and pushing long-end yields higher.
Traders are now pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, down from four last week, even as April’s inflation data came in below expectations.
Firms may have stockpiled inputs ahead of the tariff window, muting the short-term impact on consumer prices.
In other words, CPI inflation appeared softer not because inflationary pressure is gone, but because companies buffered the impact by acting early. The effects may show up in future months, once that stockpiled inventory runs out. Or so the thinking goes.
“This choppiness reflects ongoing uncertainty around trade and fiscal policy, inflation, economic growth, monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and more,” David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, told Decrypt. “Bond market volatility has eased somewhat since April but remains elevated.”
Higher real yields are traditionally seen as a headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold, and by extension, Bitcoin.
That’s because real yields—the inflation-adjusted return on safe assets like U.S. Treasurys—represent the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold or Bitcoin.
But Lawant said Bitcoin’s evolving role in institutional portfolios may soften that relationship.
“Bitcoin isn’t just another commodity; it is best understood as emerging digital gold,” he said. “As institutions start to grasp its unique properties, the price action should be driven more and more by the asset’s maturing identity.”
He added that despite macro volatility, the structural investment case for crypto remains intact.
“The long-term case for digital assets is becoming more concrete,” Lawant said, citing increased regulatory clarity and the rapid expansion of use cases such as stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets.
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